END OF OIL

Written 31st May 2005

We live in interesting times. Never before has the existence of a species impacted as much on his environment as the human race does at present. Our waste piles up and cannot be destroyed, Our industrialisation pollutes the planet and is in the process of destroying the O-zone. We are bringing about the extinction of hundreds of species of fauna and flora daily, Our cities grow and our natural heritage dwindles. And we live on in a fools Paradise, acting out the words once spoken by Louis XIV, ‘After me the fall’. …And look where that landed his family!

Maybe many of the crises will be after our time. Really great for our kids though. But one crisis is likely to catch up with us in our lifetime: The end of oil.

It appears that the Iraq war defined the beginning of the end of oil – or at least hit the dilemma home to the broader public mind. Oil reserves on planet Earth are finite and will run out - one day. OK… So oil could be obtained from other sources - possibly through cultivation… Now that’s really gonna be exciting when oil producers start competing with food producers for arable land!

Let’s try and predict a sequence of events for the end of oil. Based on what’s happening today, in all likelihood, the first thing that will happen will be heavier toll-roads. Then probably fines, taxes or levies for people traveling on their own, or using private transport.

Then will come the issuing of fuel permits to individuals or organisations ‘which warrant fuel allocations’. At this stage, the concept of private transport as we know it will become outlawed. Next, we’ll see the tightening of restricted fuel allocations. Only companies transporting essential or strategic loads will be issued.

By about this time, governments will have increased their hoarding for strategic and military reasons. People will start panicking as globalisation and city dwelling becomes threatened. There will be a quest for land as people perceive that those who want to survive will need to be able to grow their own foodstuff. Into the final stages, and all oil will be reserved for the army or ‘strategic defensive usage’. Police will no longer have access to fuel and control of petty and even violent crime will become impossible.

We will be heading back towards a state firstly of anarchy and then a situation where dog eats dog and only the strongest survive…

In the final stages, as oil becomes completely depleted, there will be no transport for supplies, trade will end and humanity will resort to surviving on facilities and provisions made available within immediate communities… Back towards the stone-age, but this time without the resources that nature has to offer, because so much of it has been destroyed in the process…

Not a very bright picture – and if we don’t take it upon ourselves to do something about it, the children and grandchildren we say we love so much, can look forward to in the wake of our indiscretions and failure to consider consequences…